ε öƽ
ȭ
ε öƽ ٶ Ⱑ ִ. ε öƽ 忡 밨 Ŀ, ڿ ҾȰ ȭǰ ִ. ̴߽ ε 忡 ۷ι 鵵 ü ȹ ǥϱ ߴ.
ߴ ε 1δ öƽ Һ ۷ι 30% ؿ Ұϴ. , ֱ ε ְȯ , Ȯ, ȭ Ǹ鼭 ε öƽ Ȱȭ Ÿ ִ. ̷ ȭ Բ ε öƽ 弼 ߰ϰ δ.
, ε δ ڱ ȭл ΰ ڵ ġϱ ִ. Ȯ ΰ δ ߰, ȭд ʼ Ȯϸ, ü ε ȯ ϰ ִ. ε ȯ ӵǸ鼭 ε ȴ.
ε öƽ 迡 ° ū Ը̸, ε ߰ ȴ. 鵵 ε 忡 Ÿ ȭ 캸, ȸ ϱ ʿ䰡 ִ.
ε öƽ ٶ Ⱑ ִ. ε öƽ 忡 밨 Ŀ, ڿ ҾȰ ȭǰ ִ. ̴߽ ε 忡 ۷ι 鵵 ü ȹ ǥϱ ߴ.
ߴ ε 1δ öƽ Һ ۷ι 30% ؿ Ұϴ. , ֱ ε ְȯ , Ȯ, ȭ Ǹ鼭 ε öƽ Ȱȭ Ÿ ִ. ̷ ȭ Բ ε öƽ 弼 ߰ϰ δ.
, ε δ ڱ ȭл ΰ ڵ ġϱ ִ. Ȯ ΰ δ ߰, ȭд ʼ Ȯϸ, ü ε ȯ ϰ ִ. ε ȯ ӵǸ鼭 ε ȴ.
ε öƽ 迡 ° ū Ը̸, ε ߰ ȴ. 鵵 ε 忡 Ÿ ȭ 캸, ȸ ϱ ʿ䰡 ִ.
ε ִ öƽ1 λϰ ִ. ε ̹ 2015 ̱ ߱ ̾ ° öƽ Һϴ Ǿ. (Narendra Modi) ε Ѹ ȭ, ġ ϰ , IMF ε 7~8%2 ϰ ִ. Ը ȮǸ鼭 ε öƽ ߰ϰ ȴ.
ѱ ȭо赵 ε ָϱ ߴ. ѱ öƽ ⷮ 5% ε ǰ , Ը 2012 66濡 2017 85 3 ϰ ִ. ֱٿ ε ΰ پ ä ȯ ϸ, ѱ ȭб ڸ ϴ Ȳ̴.
, ε öƽ ڼ ϰ ִ. ̸鿡 ũ ҾȰ ִ δ. ù ° ε 忡 ҾȰ̰, ° ε å ֹ п ҾȰ̴.
ε Ÿ ִ ֱ ȭ ε öƽ ɼ ϰ, ε ȭл ȯ ǰ ִ 캸 Ѵ.
1. ε ߱ öƽ Һ
ε ҺǴ öƽ 1,3004 ̴. ε α 13 Ѵ´ٴ ϸ, ε 1δ Һϴ öƽ 10kg ʴ´. ̴ ۷ι (34kg) 30% ؿ Ұϴ. ε α Ը ߱ 15Ⱓ 15% ⸦ Ͽ. Ⱓ ߱ 1δ öƽ Һ 15kg(’00) 52kg(’15) 3.5 ߴ. ߱ ʷ ߾ , ε 鼭 öƽ ӵ ̶ 밨 ܳ ִ.
Ϲ ﱹ 1δ ѻ(GDP) 5,000 ϴ öƽ Һ ް ϴ ִ. ʱ , ȭ Ȱʼǰ ߴϰ Ǵµ, ̵ ַ Һϴ ᰡ öƽ̴. 1δ GDP 5,000 Ŀ ȭǸ鼭 öƽ Һ ϸ Ÿ. ߱ 25Ⱓ öƽ ϰ . ݸ, ε 1δ GDP 1δ öƽ Һ ̱ Ȯϱ ټ ̸ Ȳ̴(Ʈ ).
1 öƽ Ϲ ռ ȴ. 5 ռ PE(ƿ), PP(ʷ), PS(Ƽ), PVC, ABS ߽ 캸Ҵ.
2 IMF ‘World Economic Outlook (April, 2018)’ ε 7.4%(’18), 7.8%(’19), 7.9%(’20), 8.1%(’21), 8.1%(’22) ϰ ִ.
3 ѱȸ(KITA). ѱ ε ϴ ռ(HS Cod 39) հ
4 CEI Data. 2017 ȭǰ Һ öƽ(ռ) 1,317 (PE, PP, PVC, PS, ABS, SAN, PA, PMMA ), ռ 276, ռ 81̴.
, ε , ε ߱ öƽ ϱ ̴. ߱ 1δ GDP 1,500 ̾ 2004 1δ öƽ Һ 23kg̾. ̴ ε 1δ öƽ Һ(9kg) 2.6 ̴. 2016 ε 1δ GDP 1,700 ̴. ҵ ؿ ߱ ε öƽ Һ ݵ ̴. öƽ 䰡 ϱ ؼ ڱ , , ڵ, öƽ ٷ Һϴ ȰȭǾ Ѵ. ߱ ߴϿ ڱ ǰ ϴ ݸ, ε ڱ Һϴ ǰ κ Կ ϰִ(Ʈ )., ε öƽ 䰡 ǹִ ϱ ؼ Ȱȭ Ǿ Ѵ.
2. ε öƽ
ֱ ε öƽ ħ ȭ Ÿ ִ. ε öƽ ε ְȯ , Ȯ, ̶ ȭ ָ ʿ䰡 ִ. ̷ ȭ öƽ 並 ϰ, ǰ ü üϸ鼭, ε öƽ Һ ų ̴(Ʈ ). Ÿ ȭ Ǵ ӵ ε öƽ Һ ӵ ̴.
ε δ ڱ ܱ ڸ Ȱϰ ִ. 2014 Ѹ , ε ܱ(FDI) Ѿ 288 (’14) 436 (’17) 3 ̿ 1.5 Ͽ, öƽ Һ Ȯǰ ִ(Ʈ ).ε ԵǴ FDI Ը ε ȯ ӵ ִ ô ̴.
ε ְ ȯ å Ǽ Ȯ
ε öƽ ħϴ ù ° ȭ ε ΰ 5 ذῡ ִٴ ̴. ̸ ε ϼ Ȱϰ ȴ. Ѹ ð߰ ֿ å ϰ ִ. ϼ, ó ȭϱ ‘Ʈ Ƽ(Smart Cities)’, ΰ ϱ ‘Ͽ¡ (Housing for all)’, ε ȭ ϴ ‘Ŭ ε(Clean India)’ å̴. ε εõð߰(HUDCO) Ǽ ڱ Ȯϸ, å ħϰ ִ(Ʈ ).
ε Ȯ밡 Ǹ鼭, ǰ ϴ ü ִ. ǥ ǰ PVC ̴. 2016 ε PVC 180 Ը̸, Supreme, Finolex ߽ PVC ϰ ִ. Supreme 38 PVC Ը 2018 60 Ȯ ̴. Finolex 28 PVC Ը 2020 56 Ȯ ȹ̴. ε öƽ Ǽ 귮 Ȯϸ鼭 PVC, PE, PP öƽ ̴.
Ȯ
° ȭ Ʈ ¶ Ȯ̴. 2017 ε 7% ߱(20%), ±(40%), 븸(81%) ٸ ϸ ̴. ε Ȯ ֵ ε ο ̸ ݴ߱ ̴. ǥǴ Ʈ ȮǸ, 1 5õ ϴ һ 踦 ִٴ .6 , ֱٿ ε 깰 30% 緡 ȿ Ǹ鼭 Ȯϰ ִ. Ϸʷ, 2006 500 ̾ ۸ 2016 8,500 Ͽµ, ̷ ε ӵ ȴ. ¶ 뵵 Ȯǰ ִ. ε ¶μ Ը 2016 150 2020 600 41% ̴. ε귣ڻȸ(IBEF) ε Ը 20~25% ϰ , 2020 10% ϰ ִ.7
5 迡 αе 20 10 ε ġѴ. ̴ 41% ̸ Ȳ̸, ε ֿ ÿ 2022 2,900 ä ʿ ȴ. ε α ϼ ̿ϴ 40% ̴.
6 Knowledge@Wharton, ‘Trouble in Store: A Setback for India’s Organized Retail Sector’, 2009.2.26
̷ ȭ Ư, ִ. 緡 Ǹϴ 찡 䰡 ̴. ݸ, Ŀ ǰ ȭ, ǰ ȣ, 뿡 ȿ ɼ ߰ϱ 縦 Ȱϴ . ȮǸ鼭 ε ȴ. ε 弳 Ծ 2015 31 2017 38 ϴ Ȱȭ Ÿ ִ.8 εȸǼ(FICCI) ε öƽ 2020 18% ϰ ִ(Ʈ ).
ȭ
° ȭ ε ε å ȭ̴. Ϲ , ҵ ϸ鼭 ķǰ, ʼǰ ϴ ݸ, ڵ, ǰ 翡 ϴ ִ(Ʈ ).
7 IndiaBrandEquity Foundation(IBEF), ‘RETAIL’, 2018.3
8 ѱȸ(KITA). ε 弳(HS Code 842220, 842230, 842240) ݾ հ
ε 1990 , ߰ ҵ κ Ҽ ҵ ߵǾ.9 ε δ й ֵ ȿ ϰ, ȸ ȭ10ϴ å Ȯϰ ִ. ε ε 鼭 ε ڵ, ǰ ŷ ( ҵ 3,200 ̻) Ȯ ȴ(Ʈ ). Ȯ ε ȴ.
ϴ ε ϱ ڵ ü鵵 ε ڸ Ȯϰ ִ. ε ¿ Ǹ 50% ϴ ƼŰ(Maruti Suzuki) ڶƮ ֿ 4° ߰ϴ 2020 30 ε 忡 ϰڴٴ ȹ ǥϿ. ٰ 2020 ε 6 ¿ ϱ R&D żϰ, Ȯϴ 12 ϰڴٴ ȹ ǥߴ. 2017, ε ڵ 2,500(̷ 79%, ¿ 15%) 5Ⱓ 6% ߴ. ε ڵȸ(SIAM) ڵ ü ڷ 2018 ε ڵ 14% ϰ ִ.11
ε ڱ ҺǴ ǰ 65% ϰִ.εδ ڱ ڻ ϱ ܱڸ 100% ϰ, 1 Ը ǰ ݵ(ElectronicDevelopment Fund) ϴ å Ȯϰ ִ.12 ε å ȮǸ鼭 ۷ι ڱ鵵 ε 忡 ڸ ø ִ. Zڴ ε ̴ 忡 7,000 ȭ 귮 2 ø ߴ. ߱ 5Ⱓ ε 10 ϸ, ε Ʈ Ȯϰڴٴ ȹ ǥ Ȳ̴. ε ڸ Ȯϸ鼭 ε ڻ Ը 30% ȴ(Ʈ ).
9 ҵ 10% 33%(’90)→57%(’15) ݸ, ҵ 50% 23%(’90)→15%(’15) Ͽ. ε ҵ ߵ ߽ ̷ ̴. 1990 ĺ 2012 ε Ը 6.5% Ͽ, α 0.5% ؿ ƴ. <> World Inequality Lab, ‘Indian income inequality, 1922-2015’, 2017.7.1
10 ε 2018-2019 . Social Welfare ݾ 4.9 (FY16)→6.8 (FY19)
11 India Brand Equity Foundation(IBEF), ‘Automobile’, 2018.4
12 ‘ũε’ Ȩ(http://www.makeinindia.com) ( 2018.4.26.)
3. ε öƽ ȯ
2022 ε öƽ 8.3% ̴. , ȹ · δ ϴ 並 Ű ȴ(Ʈ ).
ε δ ڱ ȭл ϱ 2007 PCPIR(Petroleum, Chemicals and Petrochemical Investment Regions) å ؿԴ. PCPIR å ε ߽ ȭ ٿƮ ȮϿ ְ ȭд ϰڴٴ ȹ̴. PCPIR å , ε ο δ PCPIR ʿ Ȯϰ, , ڿ, ó, , ױ, ȭд ʿ ⺻ Ǽ ϵ Ǿ ִ. PCPIR ε , , ΰ ڰ ϴ ΰ(Public-Private Partnership) ϰ ִ.13 ε ο ΰ ڵ ߱ ȭ ʿ Ȯ Ǽ ֵϰ ִ.
ε δ PCPIR å ʱ ܱ ڸ ġϰڴٴ ħ , δ Ը ڸ ̲ ߴ. ũ ִ. ù ° 2009 Žð ȯ ȭǸ鼭 ȭо ڰ Ȳ̾. TOTAL 2008 ε -ȭл Ͽ, ε 䰡 Ǹ鼭 ڸ Ͽ.14 ° ε ο PCPIR ڿ ʾұ ̴. ȵ(Andhra Pradesh) ֿ PCPIR ü ϰ , 4,800MW ¿뷮 3 7õ ڿ ʿ Ǿ. , 2015 PCPIR ִ ¿뷮 313MW, ڿ 7鸸 Ϳ Ұߴ.15׳, PCPIR ߴ ڶƮ(Gujarat) ֿ ε ߽ ȭл ڰ ̷, OPaL ƿ 110 Ը 2017 ߴ. ڶƮ ִ 2010 PCPIR , 뿡 ȮϿ, , ü, , LNG ̳, ױ 25 ߴ.16 ݸ, (Odisha), ȵ, Ÿг(Tamil Nadu) 3 ֿ PCPIR å Ǹ鼭 Ը ġ ް ִ.
, ֱ ε δ ε ȭл ΰ ڵ ġϱ ִ. 鿡 ȭ Ÿ ִ. ù °, Ȯ ΰ δ ִ. ε ٷӰ, ̿ õ ֹ ݹ ż Ȯ ð ҿǴ 찡 . PCPIR ϴ ο ΰ Ȯ δ ߰, ̹ Ȯ ΰ ڿ Ӵϴ Ȱϰ ִ. PCPIR 10̶ 帣鼭 ο Ȯ Ȯǰ ִ. ڶƮ ֿ PCPIR Ϸ Ȳ̴. ȵ, , Ÿг ִ , Ȯ ߽ ΰ ڸ ġϰ ִ.17
°, ȭд ʼ ⺻ Ȯǰ ִ. ε δ ܱ ġ Ȯϱ ε ڸ ϰ ִ. ڿ 2016 340 2018 920 2 ̿ 2.7 ߴ. ε ΰ Ȯ뿡 鼭 , , ױ ߽ ǰ ִ(Ʈ ).
°, ü ε ȯ ǰ ִ. ε δ 2017 ε Ǵ հ(GST) Ͽ. GST ָ ü谡 ߴ. 踦 Ѿ ǰ ϴ , Լ/༼ ؾ ߰, ΰġ ϴ 쵵 ٹݻ . GST ȭǰ, ü赵 鼭 ε δ ȭ δ.18
̿ ÿ ε δ ڱ λ ϰ ִ. غ ڵ / ǰ ̿ õ ǰ 7.5~15% 15~25% λǾ.19 ε ΰ ȭл ̸鼭, 7.5~10% öƽ λ ɼ ִ.
ε ȭл ǰ, ۷ι ȸǸ鼭 ε ö ƽ ǥϴ ܱ Ÿ ִ. ٷ Aramco 븸 CPC ڸ ε 忡 ϰڴٴ ȹ ǥߴ. Aramco ε (IOCL, BPCL, HPCL) ϶Ʈ(Maharashtra) ֿ 440 Ը -ȭ ÷ 50% ϰڴٴ ذ(MOU) üϿ. 븸 CPC ڶƮ ֿ 58 ũĿ ȭм Ǽ ȹ̶ ǥϿ. ܿ TOTAL 2009 並 Ͽ ȵ ȭд ڿ Ǹ 簳 Ȳ̴. , ε ȯ ӵǸ鼭 ε ȴ.
ε öƽ 忡 Ÿ ִ ȭ κ ΰ ֿ å ٷ ϰ ִ. ε ټ å ϰ ֱ (Ʈ ), üǴ ε ̿ öƽ Һ 帧 ӵ δ. 2019 Ѽ Ѹ ӿ ϴ å ϰ , ε öƽ 弼 10% ӵ ɼ .
Khalid al-Falih “α Ը ū ε 켱 ڸ ϴ .” ϸ, “ֱ ε ΰ å ȭ Aramco ε 忡 ڸ ϰ ̴” ε .20 ܱ ε 忡 ü ڸ ϰ, ư ȹ ǥϰ ִٴ Ⱑ ſ ûѴ. 鵵 ε öƽ 忡 Ÿ ȭ 캸, ϴ Ŵ ε ȸ ϱ ʿ䰡 ִ.
LG
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