"2020 10 Ű (MANAGE RISK) "
2020 2019 Ǹ鼭, κ ܱ· ũ ȭ ɼ δ. ̿ 2020 ȭδ “ũ ϴ (MANAGE RISK)” ̴. ̿ ųȣ 볻 ȯκ ߵǴ پ ũ Ͽ ȸ ֵ ְ Ѵ. < ڷ : >
2020 Ű ũ ϴ (MANAGE RISK) Ͽ. ̴ 2020 10 Ư¡ Ÿ ٽɿ ù ڸ ̴.
ũ (MANAGE RISK)ؾ ϴ 2020 10 Ư¡
⇢ ·ǰ (Material & components industry) Ȱȭ
2020 ·ǰ· ȭ ·ȸ ӵǸ鼭 ȸ ϰ ִ.
ѱ ȭ 70% Ĺݿ ΰġ ؿ ǴܵǴµ 2014 ѱ ߰ ȭ 76.6% ݸ Ϻ ȭ 84.4%̴. ѱ 2006 Ѷ 80.1% ȭ ϱ Ͽ ٰ ֱ ٽ ϴ δ.
ѱ ߰ ̴ Դ ߱ Ϻε ߱ 2000 1.6% ҰϿ 2014 6.4% ϴ ̰ , Ϻ꿡 Ⱓ 6.6% 4.3% ϸϰ ̴. ̿ 2014 ߰翡 ̱ 1.7%, 1.2% Ÿ.
߰ ·ǰ ں Ը ϴ Ȳ̴.
·ǰ· ѱ Ϻ Ծ 2001 192 2018 371 ̸, ·ǰ· ѱ Ϻ Ⱓ 64 148 Ͽ. ̿ ·ǰ· ѱ Ϻ Ը 2001 128 2018 223 Ȯǰ ִ.
2020 ̽ ӵǸ鼭 õ̸ ΰġ μ ܰ ·ǰ· ȭ ȭ ȴ.
Ư, ٰ̰ ·ǰ· ӵ ǴܵǸ, ֱ ·ǰ· å 11 ó ·ǰ· ȭåǥ, ·ǰ· ȸ, ·ǰ· Ưȸ, ߱ ·ǰ· ұ 100 ִ. ̿ (ȭ, ݼ, ݼ ), ǰ (·, Ϲݱ, Ư, б) ȭ ȴ.
⇢ ƽþ(Asia) ȮǼ Ϲ ũ
2020 ƽþ ȮǼ ƽþƿ ѱ Ҿȿ ȴ.
ƽþ ǿ üδ 2020 2019 ̶ ð ü̴. IMF (World Economic Outlook, 2019 10) 2020 ƽþư 6.0% 2019 5.9% ȴ. ֿ Ǻ ASEAN 2019 4.8% 2020 4.9% ϸ, ߱ Ⱓ 6.1% 5.8% ϶, ε 6.1% 7.0% µ ȴ.
ƽþ ٽ ߱ ε ֱ Ȳ 帧 , ƽþ ǿ ü ũ ϶ ɼ ϱ ƴٰ Ǵܵȴ. ֱ ߱ б 0.2%p ϶ϸ鼭 5%밡 ȭ ̶ ð ̴. ε , ΰǸ鼭 2018 1б 8.1% 2019 1б 5.8% ̾ 2б 5.0% ϴ ̰ ִ.
ѱ ƽþƱǿ 2019 60.7% ƽþƴ 츮 忡 Ѵ. 2019 1~9 , ѱ ü ƽþ ϴ 60.7% ϴ мȴ. δ Ϲ 14.4%, 13.0% Ÿ ִ.
ѱ ƽþ ϴ ̸߱, Ʈ ε ߵ ̴. ߱ / ƽþ 40%, ȫ 50% ϴ мȴ. Ʈ ƽþ ü 15%, Ϻ 9%, ε 5%, 븸 5% Ÿ ִ.
ѱ ƽþƱǿ ̱ , ƽþ ο Ⱑ ɰ ɼ Ѵ. 2018 ƽþ ü ϸ鼭 ȣ Ѵٰ ִ. 2019 Ѽ б 9.8% ݸ, ƽþ 13.3%, ü ⺸ ƽþ ħü ū мȴ.
⇢ 鿡 (Next generation) ַ»
缺 ַ» Ͽ ο Ϸ ο ΰ Ȯ ȴ.
ѱ 缺 10 ̱ Ǹ鼭, ѱ ʹ Ѵٴ Ȯ ̴. 鿡 ѱ 缺 2.5% 10 3.9% 1.4%p Ͽµ, ̴ ַ (ں) εȴ. ѱ 缺 10 1% 缺 ߶ Ǵµ, ̴ 뵿 (갡α) Ұ ֵ ȴ. ̿ ѱ-̱ 缺 (2016~20) 0.7%p 2026~30 ȴ.
鿡 ַ» ȭ ǰ ־ ο 嵿» ϰ ִ Ȳ̴. ֱ ַ ȭ ӿ Ϻ ο ⼺ λȴ. ߿ ǰ, ȰҺ, , , ̿·コ ε巯 Ÿ ִ.
ο 嵿 ɼ о ߿ ̿·コ , η° Ȯ ̴.
2 ֱ ۷ι 忡 ϰ ִ ǰ, Ϻ ϰ ߰ о߷ ȴ. ȰҺ ѷ ް ִ ǰ ƽþƱ κ ϰ , ۷ι Ȯ强 ٰ ȴ. ֺ ȯ ̽ ǰ Ÿ ΰǸ鼭 ѱ ǰ ¹ о߷ Ǵܵȴ.
ֱ δ ܱ ħü غ 嵿 Ȯ ο ϱ üȭϴ ̴. δ ѷ ü踦 ǥϰ 6 ()⼺嵿(̿·コ, 2 , ȭ·, ѷ·ȰҺ, ǰ, ÷Ʈ·ؿ Ǽ) ϰڴٴ ȹ ǥϿ.
⇢ ΰ(Artificial intelligence) ȭ
ΰ о ̾鼭 ̱ Ȯ ȴ. ΰ üȭ Ǹ鼭 ΰ о߰ 4 ٽ ڸű ϰ ִ Ȳ̴. ֱٿ Ұ ű ϸ鼭 ȭ ΰ εǸ鼭 ΰ о߿ ΰ ں Ȳ̴.
Ʈ(Gartner) ΰ о߿ ıǴ ΰġ Ը 2019 1.9 2022 3.9 ȴ. ѱ ΰ о ū Ǵ η Ͽ , , ̴.
Ʈ åҿ ΰ γ 500 ѱ 7ۿ Ե ֿ䱹 η ɰ Ȳ̴. ̿ δ 3 п ΰ(AI) Ưȭ п ϴ η ַϰ , ΰ ܱ η ġ ؿܰ ̴.
⇢ GVC(Global value chain) ȭ ߰ ħ
źġ ϶ Ǿ ߰ ѱ ȴ.
, 2020 2019⺸ ϸ鼭 ȴ. IMF (World Economic Outlook, 2019 10) 2020 3.4% 2019 3.0% ȴ. 2019 1.1% 2020 3.2% ȸ ȴ.
źġ 1p ̸ ߰ ũ ȰȭDZ Ȳ̴. źġ (ΰġ+߰) ΰġ ̸ Ÿ ǥ̴. źġ Ҵ ñ 2000 ߹ 1.6p Ͽ 0.9Ʈ ϶Ͽ. źġ ϶ ֵ , ߱ ȭ , ȣ Ȯ ߰ мȴ.
ѱ ߰ 2010 ߰ ϴ ̴. ѱ Ѽ ߰ ϴ 2010 59.2% 2019 70.8% Ǿ.
۷ι źġ ѱ ߰ 谡 2020 źġ 츮 ̳, ü ʱ ߰ ȸ ϱ ƴٰ Ǵܵȴ. ۷ι źġ 2018 1.0Ʈ 2019 0.4Ʈ ϶Ͽ, 2020 0.9Ʈ µ ̴. ̿ ѱ ߰ 2018 13.8% 2019 10.9% ħü 2020 5% ܷ ȸ ̴.
⇢ Ȯ ȯ (Environmental industry)
2020 ȯ о ϸ鼭 ȯ ȸ õ ̴ , Ȱ ȭ, ȯ ȭ ȯ Ϲ ũ Ǵܵȴ.
ֱ 10 ȯ Ȳ ü ִ Ǵܵȴ.
2011~15 Ⱓ ȯ漭 帧 ̴ мȴ. ݸ, 2015~18 ȯ漭 ȯ о ũ Ǵܵȴ. , 2019 ȯ о ұϰ ȯ漭 ũ ۵ ϴ ̴µ, ̰ Ȳ ȭ( ) ũ Ǵܵȴ.
2020 ȿ ȯ о ū ʿ ȯ Ⱑ ȸ 鿡 ɼ Ǵܵȴ. 2020 12 о ȯ о ( 19.3%) ϰ ִ. ̿ 2020 ȯ о Ը 8.8 ̸ ȴ.
ÿ 2020 ȯ Ϲ ũ ϱ ȯ ⸦ ϱ⸸ Ȳ̴.
2020 ȯ ũδ ȯ о , ̼ ȯ ̽ ȸ ɵ , IMO 2020 ȯ ȭ ִ. Ϲ ũδ 忡 Ȱ ȭ, ַ ΰ ȯ , ·· ȭ ʿ伺 ȯ ȭ 䱸 Ȯ ִ.
⇢ (Restructuring) з
ȭ ӵǸ鼭 Ǽ з ȴ. 2019 볻 濵 ȯ ȮǼ ްϰ ȭǴ ̰ ִ. 2019 2б ͷ(/) 5.22% ֱ 5 Ͽ, 2018 2б 7.71% 2.49%p Ͽ. , ͷ 2018 2б 9.52% 2019 2б 5.51% Ͽ, Ⱓ 5.03% 4.83% ϶Ͽ.
Ư, 2018 Ȳ ظ鼭 Ѱ ߽ 濵 ؼҵ ϴ Ȳ̴. ݵü κ ַ ǰ ̴ Ȳ ̴. 2018 ֱٱ Ȳ , ϰ б 0.7% ϴ , 7.1% ̸鼭 ǸŴ ϰ ̴ Ȳ ϰ ִ.
2020 ַ ħü 鿡 Ǹ鼭 Ϻ ȭ Ǿ з ȴ.
2020 IT, , ħü ȸ ȴ. ڵ, ȭ, ö, Ǽ 2020 ħü Ⱑ ȴ. ڵ ۷ι ڵ Ȳ, ȯ ȭ, ΰҺ ɼ ٰ Ǵܵȴ. ö ȭ ֵ ó ߱ , ߱ ǰ , ڵ Ǽ ħü Ȳ 鿡 ġ ȴ. , Ǽ SOC Ȯ뿡 ұϰ ι װ ұ ߽ 濵 ȯ ȭ ȴ.
2020 Ǵ Ž Ȳ ȭ ̿ , μ Ϻ ڵ Ǽ ɼ ٰ Ǵܵȴ. ڵ ϼ ٴ ֱ ũ ȭǰ ִ ̳ ϼ ǰ ɼ ٰ Ǵܵȴ. Ǽ о ū ɼ ȴ.
⇢ ȸ (Infra industry) ȸ Ȯ
Ǽ Ȳ ȭ ӿ SOC Ȯ ȸ ɵ ȸ Ȯ ȴ. ΰ ȸ 2020 SOC 2019 19.8 22.3 ũ Ͽ. SOC 20 뿡 19 ũ ϶Ͽ, 2020 22.3 12.9% Ͽ. Ը Ʈ ߿伺 ΰǸ鼭 SOC ڰ ȮǴ ̴.
ε ȭ ް SOC Ȯ Ұ Ȳ̴. ȸåó ذ 30 ̻ SOC ϴ 2016 10.3% 2021 15.5%, 2036 61.5% ȴ. ̿ · Ը ϰ, ð 带 üϿ Ӱ ؾ 䰡 ̴.
⇢ зα(School age) ũ
̹ зα ް Ÿ ް ִ Ѱ ȴ.
2020 зα 800 رǴ ̸鼭 ֱ ū ذ ȴ. зα 2000 1,138 Ͽ 2010 1,000 ȸϰ 2015 900 2020 800 ر ȴ. 2020 з α 782 2019 805 23 ϴµ, ̴ 2016 ū Ҹ ȴ.
2020 зα ҷ ħü ӵ Ǹ, ε ̷ ȭ ɼ ſ ٰ ȴ. 2010 ̳ ȸϴ ħü ϰ ִ. 2010 3.2% 3.3%̾, 1.6% ġ мȴ. ֵ зα ްϱ ̸, Ͽ зα Ұ ȸƮ ȭǾ ȴ.
⇢ ѷ(Korean wave) Ȯ ѷ
ѷ(Hallyu, Korean wave) Ȯ ȭǸ鼭, ȸ · Һ ȮǸ ѷ ȴ.
ȭ· ߽ ѷ Ȯ ̳, ֱ ѱ ߹ȭ, 빮ȭ ѱ ȸ·ȭ ݿ ɵ ϰ ִ. 90 ֱ BTS 뺯Ǵ K-POP , ȭ ‛’ 72ȸ ĭȭ Ȳ Ͽ. ̿ ؿܿ ѱ ȭ ȰĿ ̸ Һϰ ϴ ۷ι 䰡 Ȯ ̴.
ֱ ѷ Ȯ ܱ ϸ鼭 ȭǰ ִ.
2019 ܱ 1,400 ܼ Ǹ鼭, ߱ ġ ְġ 2016 1,393 ȸ ɼ Ǵܵȴ. 2020 ֱٰ 1,500 ִٰ ȴ.
, ѱȭ ɵ ũ 鼭 ѱ Һ翡 䵵 ϴ ̴.
2019 ü Ҽ ϴ ݸ, Һ мȴ. ѷ õ ȭǰ Ƽǰ, ǰ, Ƿ·м ǰ ѱ Һ翡 ȣ Ǵܵȴ. 2020 ѷ Һ翡 䰡 忡 ȸ ۿ ̴.
û ⇢ ȸ! 10
2020 ۷ι ѱ Ȳ 2019 Ǹ鼭, κ ܱ· ũ ȭ ɼ δ. ̿ 2020 ȭδ “ũ ϴ (MANAGE RISK)” ̸, ̿ ΰ ⼺ Ǵܵȴ. ̸ ؼ õǴ 10 ָ ʿ䰡 ִ.
ù°, ·ǰ· å Ӽ ȿ Ȯ
·ǰ· ʿ Ȱȭ ó â ִٰ Ǵܵȴ. ̸ ؼ а ڱ , ü η 缺 Ȱȭ ñϴ. , Ȱ 繰ͳ 4 ձ Ͽ ·ǰ· ִ ý ʿ䰡 ִ.
°, ƽþ ܱ ȮǼ ¿
ѱ ƽþ 忡 м ǿ Ȳ Ǵ ʿ䰡 ִ. ̸ ؼ 켱 ƽþ ⸦ ϴ ߱ ε ֱ Ȳ ȭ ܱ Ȳ Ǵϰ ó å ؾ ̴. Ư, ƽþ 츮 ߿ λ ASEAN(Ƽ) ߱ ε 캼 ʿ䰡 ִ.
°, ñ Ȯ о
ũ оߵ ܰ, ȭ ܰ, Ȯ ܰ پ ġ оߺ ʿϴ. 켱 ܰ迡 ִ о߿ ؼ Ȯ ٽ̱ , ̳ 强ٴ ȭ ɼ õ ߿ ַ ʿ䰡 ִ. о, ƴ϶ · Һ ִ 嵿 о߿ ؼ, ܱ Ȯ, ü ؿ ȭ ̷ ʿϴ.
°, ΰ(AI) 忡 Ͽ η ΰں ġ
ΰ(AI) о߿ ̰ ΰ(AI) 忡 ϱ ؼ ٵ ѱ AI о ū η Ȯ Ǿ ̴. ̸ ؼ 켱 η 缺 ־ ֺ о߰ ƴ AI Ưȭ ް ۷ι ´ Ŀŧ ̷ ̴.
, AI оߴ 4 õ ȭ ̱ ι ߺٴ ΰ ַ ʿ䰡 ִ. ̸ ؼ ΰ п ߽ Ȯ밡 ٶϴٰ ȴ.
ټ°, ȣǷ ۷ι о ȭ
۷ι о ȭ ߰ ߽ 츮 ַ» ū ٰ ֱ ִ ǰ ߿ ַؾ ̴. ̸ ؼ ݰ¿ ϴ ⱸ Ѱ輺 νϰ, ΰġ ߽ ȯ ̷ å ⼺ 缳ؾ ̴.
· ı ϱ Ư 忡 ʿ䰡 ִ. ƽþ ߵ ⱸ ִ ũ лѾ Ѵ. ̸ ؼ ƽþ ̿ (߾Ӿƽþ, , , ī ) ٺȭ ɼ Žؾ ̴.
°, ȯ ȯ °
ֱ ȯ ȸ ȯ о߿ ΰġ â ǰ ־, ȯ ߽ ΰ Ȯ ɼ ϰ ִ. ε ȯ 麸ٴ ٶ ߽ Ǵ ȭ ܰ踦 ʿ䰡 ִ. ̸ ؼ ΰġ â ִ Ը ȮϿ Ը ϶ų ־ Ѵ. , 忡 鿡 ٴ, ִ ؿ ô ϴ ξ Ǵܵȴ. ٵ ο ־ ȯ Ȯ å ȯ Ѿ ̴.
ϰ°, ַ» ϰ ִ غ ý۱
ſ ȭ, λ ѵ 忡 ġ Ұϸ, ̿ ȭǴ Ÿ. ̷ ȯ ȭ ߾ ڿ(ں, 뵿) ȿ ι ȿ ι ̵Ǿ ϳ, ȭ ·ں ð ҿǴ ͵ ̴. ̸ غϱ , Ȯ Ȱ ۵ ִ ý ϴ 䱸ȴ. Ȱ̳ ˹ ȭϴ ʿϴ. ٵ ·ں ΰ ֵǰ ոȭ Ȱϰ żϰ ۵ ִ ý ϴ ٶϴٰ Ǵܵȴ.
°, ũ лų ִ ȭ ʿ
ѱ 庸 ϱ ؼ ڿ ̷ȸ 䱸ϴ ο ߿ϴ. ƿƼ(ϼ, , ) ȭ Ͽ ε Ȱ ̽ ǰ ִ. ̿ ȯ̶ ȸ 䱸 ϱ ؼ ȭ ʿ Ȳ̴.
߾ο ü Ͽ ȭ SOC ƿƼ ü Ȯ ü 並 ľؾ ̸, ̷ȸ ȭ ߾ ο (IoT ̿ õ Ÿ, Ʈ Ƽ Ȯ ÷ ) 並 ؾ ̴.
ȩ°, ħü ȭϱ ո̰ Ȱ
л Ը Ұ Ȳ̱ , , , å 籹 ΰ ·ȸ ɰ Ǵܵȴ. Ư, б ۿ α ̾ ־ 籹 ü ո̰ Ȱϰ ִ μ ؾ ̴.
, å 籹 â п 米 ؼ ϰ, 米 ο ó ⼺ ִ ؾ ̴.
°, ȭ Ʈ ѷ Ʈ ϰ ٽ ڸűϱ ؼ ѷ ȭ ° ؿ ȭ ַؾ Ѵ.
· ѷ Һ翡 ڰ ȮǾ ̸, ؿܽ忡 Һ Ʈ忡 յ ִ ο ǰ ֵǾ ̴. ܱ ġ ڿ ߱ ӵǾ ̸, ȭ, ü, , ȭ ڿ ȫ ִ ȸ ȮѾ ̴.
Ư, ѷ Һ ū ȿ ؼ · ؿ 䱸Ǹ, ư ѷ ġ ̾ ֵ ѷ Ȱ ִ ʿ䰡 ִ.
<۱ڨ 'öƽ̾' - .>
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